preceded by a flattening of the yield curve. The yield curve is a graphical illustration of the yields of bonds with various terms to maturities. If rates rise, then the return may be less than yield that results from riding the curve and could even fall below the return of the bond that matches the investors investment horizon, thereby, resulting in a capital loss. If you are trading very short term, by that I mean zb trading strategy similar to a swing trader, where trades are open for a couple days to a couple weeks, then your idea of steepening or flattening may be very different from someone trading long term, like. For investments decision making and comparison of different securities, offered on financial markets, an adequate unified basis is absolutely necessary. By using this ratio, you more or less eliminate movement of the spread due to price, and isolate instead the movement of yield. So after analysis of all gathered data and relative risk evaluation a trader opens a position only if short-term moving average is higher than long-term. When we say go long the spread, like the TUT spread, we mean go long the shorter maturity leg (Front Leg) and short the longer maturity leg (Back Leg).
Here are the popular yield curve trades using treasury futures and TradeStation symbols and the calculated DV01 ratio as of April 2017. Typically, fixed income investors purchase securities with a maturity equal to their investment horizons and hold to maturity. Also, depending upon your entry strategy, it might make sense to favor either steepening or flattening. However, riding the yield curve attempts to outperform this basic and low risk strategy. The slope of the yield curve is primarily influenced by the central banks monetary policy and inflation expectations. I then look for cross overs to determine when the yield curve is changing direction. A yield curve analysis for long run time period (even from first historical records till latest trade deals) may help to set realistic investment goals. There are many other related yield curve trades using the various maturities, and each has an associated risk measure and recommended ratio of Front to Back Leg position size.